2012: A Presidential Odyssey

It's been discussed since the day after Election Day, 2008.  It's been discussed while people were running for seats (and pundits were trying to sound smart) during last year's midterm elections.  And since the day after Election Day, 2010, that's become the most pontificated political topic right now.  Well, what else is new?

I've written elsewhere about 2012 already, as has everybody, but the sheer number of possible candidates has surprised me.  So many names have been brought up on the Republican side alone that I'm further surprised nobody has started going, “Hurry! Hurry! Hurry! 25 Candidates Vying For A Nomination! Get your tickets! Get your tickets! Hurry! Hurry! Hurry!”.  Yeah, I've said that elsewhere, too.

Anyway, I decided a while back to try and write as good an analysis of 2012 and the possible candidates as I can, even though I don't know enough about the candidates (well, it can't be any worse than when the pundits put their foot in their mouths!).  So here it is, my 2¢ on nearly 20 names brought up as candidates for President:


Haley Barbour - He has two things going for him when it comes to experience: serving as Governor of Mississippi for seven years, proving himself a capable leader (especially when dealing with emergencies like Hurricane Katrina and the BP oil spill), and four years as RNC Chairman from 1993-97 (remember the ’94 elections?); such a background could serve him well.  However, he is considered a dark horse candidate (like Mike Huckabee was in 2007) and is still fairly unknown (although attempts to smear him as a racist have already taken place).

John Bolton - A strong candidate on foreign policy, as well as strongly pro-2nd Amendment and pro-Israel, his biggest obstacle is the fact he's looking at an election where foreign policy is not the major focus.  He'll have to convey his stances on economic issues and what solutions he'd pursue if elected, but I'm willing to predict if he were to run, the former Ambassador to the U.N. wouldn't last long.

Herman Cain - A successful businessman and conservative columnist, he's been touted as a candidate by RedState and R.S. McCain, but he remains a virtual unknown.  In other words, it'd be an uphill battle.

Mitch Daniels - 1st observation that comes to mind is he's a great alternative to Mitt Romney on three counts: 1) his background in business and experience as Governor here in Indiana 2) his Health Savings Accounts (for obvious reasons) and 3) a consistent social conservative.  He's approached the job here with a businessman's mindset (in my opinion), which has resulted in an efficiently run government, but his efforts to reform local government here hasn't gone over well and it also begs the question of which government is better, efficient or limited?

Newt Gingrich - Although there's nothing about him that screams Presidential material to me, he's long been regarded as a perennial possible candidate.  I don't remember enough of his record as Speaker of the House for four years, but he serves a better purpose writing books, contributing his 2¢ on TV and giving speeches, and I believe he knows that as well.

Mike Huckabee - His strengths lie in his social conservatism and as a proponent of the FairTax, but he'll be carrying the same baggage from 2008 (his record as Governor of Arkansas primarily), and he will have an obstacle to face in the form of libertarian-leaning voters, of whom the former Arkansas Governor is among their least favorite people; if anything, the overall Patriot movement has stoked a fire for libertarian thoughts and beliefs among many people, and his support for Michelle Obama's obesity fight won't endear him too well.

Jon Huntsman - The Ambassador to China was recently brought up (although I honestly don't know why) as a possible candidate.  He's been described as a moderate Republican, and if so, I have no use for him.  Opponents of Mitt Romney might like him running due to the fact he is a Mormon also (although the fact he was Governor of Utah before becoming Ambassador might be a bigger factor in siphoning votes from Romney).

Gary Johnson - The fact he is described as a libertarian Republican might be all that's needed to explain what kind of candidate the former Governor of New Mexico could be.  As a candidate, his biggest appeal lies with Ron Paulians, and as a candidate, a possible Achilles’ heel could be the fact his appeal is strongest with Ron Paulians (especially if Ron Paul himself runs in 2012 thus canceling out a Johnson bid).  The fact he's been out of office for eight years might serve as a negative (although I don't see that as likely), and the fact he supports marijuana legalization will be used to paint him as a fringe candidate.

Sarah Palin - There's no way I can be objective about this one; she's the best candidate as far as I'm concerned, has shown herself willing to combat fellow Republicans if necessary, proved to be an effective leader as Governor of Alaska, has a strong support base, and is proving to be an intelligent voice on the issues.  Her greatest strength lies in who she is as a person, in her character, and the fact she comes across as a regular person; not an intellectual or an establishment snob, but someone you could talk to about anything instead of just politics.

Ron Paul - And speaking of the rock star himself, when he ran in 2008, I was opposed to his bid over disagreements on foreign policy (which haven't changed).  I'm personally opposed to a 2nd run, however, because of his new spot as Chairman of the House Domestic Monetary Policy Subcommittee.  If he were to run, though, he would fare better the 2nd time around due to his words and stances resonating more with voters (he still wouldn't win, of course; he's never been an establishment favorite, I grant that).  If he runs, I predict he'll win at least one primary contest.

Tim Pawlenty - Almost from the moment I came across his name as a possible candidate, the former Governor of Minnesota has always struck me as a weak candidate (plus I'm not nuts about his environmental stances either).  Furthermore, he also strikes me as milquetoast and unimpressive (a lot like Sam Brownback in 2007).  I predict a solid backbencher in the 2012 race right here.

Mike Pence - A solid conservative Congressman who's name is out there thanks to his tenure as head of the House GOP Conference, and fairly popular with Tea Partiers and 9/12'ers, the only reason I haven't taken much stock in a Pence run is because of a possible run for Governor here in Indiana.  With our Lt. Governor, Becky Skillman, out of contention, his name is the only one left on the Republican side.  It's still a long time until 2012, but if he wants to, the Governor's Mansion in Indianapolis could be his for the taking.

Mitt Romney - He has the money to be a major contender for the nomination and is regarded by some establishment members as preferable to Sarah Palin.  As with Mike Huckabee, however, this one will be bringing the baggage of 2008 with him (the suspected flip-floppery), and on top of that, there's the fallout over RomneyCare, which he continues to defend.  Although his strength lies on the economic issues, the baggage could prove too much (especially if Mitch Daniels runs).  I personally wouldn't vote for him even if he wins the GOP nod.

Rick Santorum - Because he has been politically active in key states like Iowa, the former Senator from Pennsylvania continues to be mentioned as a possible candidate, but I'm just not seeing him as someone who has a chance at all if he decides to run.  The fact he lost his last bid for elected office in 2006 to Bob Casey isn't something I'd be bragging about.  Also, his strength lies in social issues as well, which not only isn't the focus of 2012, but his strength could be cancelled out by a Huckabee run.

John Thune - Aside from defeating Tom Daschle in 2004 for the Senate seat he currently holds, he remains largely an unknown (he's strongly pro-2nd Amendment, but I don't know much else).  He has always struck me as Vice Presidential material, not Presidential.

There have been other candidates brought up somewhere in the great forum of public opinion, and most of them I've long dismissed for various reasons, but there are three candidates I have a little more to say:

Rudy Giuliani - If he runs as a moderate, he could help Romney in the short run, cancelling out perhaps a Huntsman bid and keeping Utah (and the Mormon vote) theoretically safe for his old foe.

Michele Bachmann - I'm more inclined to think she's working behind the scenes to help get a good candidate elected instead of running for the job herself.

Donald Trump - He flirted with the idea (as I understand) in 1988 on the Republican ticket, and he flirted again with the idea in 2000 on Ross Perot's Reform Party ticket; he's just flirting with the idea the 3rd time around.  He remains a pipe dream and nothing more.

Well, that's about it for my analysis.  Yeah, I know it probably stinks, but I will note I've never been a good analyst when it comes to political candidates.  The only other thing I have to say is, as I have said repeatedly, my support first and foremost is for Sarah Palin.  If she doesn't run, I'm willing to look at a few of the possible candidates (most likely Gary Johnson, Haley Barbour and Mitch Daniels).  I'm not confident about John Bolton, Herman Cain or Mike Pence making a run, I'm not comfortable with Mike Huckabee and I don't believe Ron Paul would win the primaries (although if he won, I'd support his bid in the general election).

I'd rather not have to look elsewhere for the best candidate for President in 2012, but I'm willing to do so if necessary; I hope I that won't have to happen.